On Leaving COP22

Civil Society Event for Outgoing U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki Moon
(Photo by Gillian Bowser)

As I was leaving the Moroccan venue on the last day of the United Nations climate conference (COP22), participants were gathering for a photo with a banner avowing “We will move ahead!” The message was similar to one on a banner used at a civil society ceremony for outgoing U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki Moon: “Climate action is unstoppable.” Given the mood at the conference after the outcome of the U.S. elections, I couldn’t help but wonder if these declarations were aimed at our country and president-elect Trump.

With the media fully focused on the campaign and post-election analysis, there was little coverage of COP22 back in this country. But in Marrakech, there was a palpable sense of urgency to hammer out the implementation details of the Paris Agreement which entered into force on November 4^th. Although 112 of 197 countries, including the U.S., have already ratified the agreement, the current pledged national reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are inadequate to achieve the goal of holding global temperature increase to no more than 2°C. For the first four months of 2016, the average global surface temperature was hovering around 1.2°C warmer than the 1951 to 1980 mean, and 2016 is on track to be the warmest year on record. The previous warmest year, 2015, was 0.8°C warmer than the long temp average.

While in Marrakech, I attended an event entitled “Earth Info.” Some of the latest climate science was presented about the extent of extreme weather events, sea ice loss, and ocean indicators of change. I wasn’t surprised by the data or the faster-than-expected pace of change. I was, however, shocked by the comments of a presenter from FuturEarth.org who argued that in order to meet the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement, the world will have to reach peak emissions within four years, be at net-zero emissions within forty years, and develop a new carbon sink on the scale of the planet’s oceans within eighty years. In other words, our global decarbonization challenge will require not only tremendous advances in clean energy technology but also geo-engineered solutions. For those who believe that technology has created a number of environmental and social disasters throughout history, this was terrifying news. For those who believe that technological solutions are what will get us out of the climate change mess and spur a new low-carbon, clean energy economy, the uncertain future role of the U.S. in leading the new research and tech development is unsettling.

It didn’t take long after the election for China’s Vice Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin to remind the world of the important role that the U.S. had played in the history of climate change negotiations under Republican leadership in the late 1980s (as opposed to global warming being “created by and for the Chinese”). China, however, sees this new political environment as an opportunity to take the lead in global climate change action. Over the past five years, they have become the top investor in renewable energy, outspending the EU by a factor of 2.5 in 2015.

John Kerry, in his last speech to a COP audience as Secretary of State, noted that emerging economies like China, India and Brazil invested more in renewable technologies last year than the developed world. He went on to say that “clean energy is expected to be a multitrillion dollar market – the largest market the world has ever known,” and added “…no nation will do well if it sits on the sidelines, handicapping its new businesses from reaping the benefits of the clean-tech explosion.”[1]

Despite its shortcomings, the Paris Agreement sent a strong message to the private sector. Consistent with this, a letter signed by several hundred members of the U.S. business and investment community was addressed to President-elect Trump, urging him to keep our nation engaged in the Paris process and support the goals of the Agreement.[2]

The results of the U.S. elections cast a long shadow over the international negotiations. I reflected on how different things felt from the last time there was a change in the U.S. leadership – my first COP – in 2009. At that time, Obama was new in office and there was optimism that we would provide the much needed leadership on tackling climate change. Since then, the rest of the world has become much more unified on a way forward on this global challenge, and developing countries are now assuming the leadership in finding solutions to both a low carbon future and adapting to the impacts of climate change. It remains to be seen whether our country will stand alone on the outside of this unified movement, or if the momentum is strong enough among local governments, businesses, colleges and universities, and civil society to convince our new leaders to stay the course.

---

[1] The text of John Kerry’s speech at COP22 can be found at http://m.state.gov/md264366.htm.

[2] The “Business Backs Low-Carbon USA” letter to President-elect Trump: www.lowcarbonusa.org

Moral Courage

 
It is a rare that one has the opportunity to be in a room with a great leader, with someone who is articulate, passionate, and willing to show both courage and emotion on the international stage. Today was such a day.

Secretary Kerry started a briefing – his last at a COP as Secretary – by graciously thanking Special Envoy Jonathan Pershing, the U.S. delegation to the COP, and all the international partners - on this, his last speech to a COP as Secretary. He talked about returning to COP23 as citizen Kerry. He told a story of Churchill and Roosevelt traveling to Marrakech during WWII -- through active combat and with plenty of scotch - to view the sunset on the Atlas Mountains. He later would quote Churchill about not just doing what is right, but what is required. And he would go on to quote Pope Francis. This was not a typical briefing.

Kerry spoke of progress - in the UNFCCC, in clean energy innovation and adoption, in the strong message that the Paris Agreement has given the private sector. But he also spoke of the work that is yet to be done, sharing dramatic observations from his recent trips to the Arctic and Antarctica along with frightening statistics of the predicted new demand for energy, especially in southeast Asia, much of which is slated to come from coal.

The Secretary chastised countries that, with one hand, pat themselves on the back for all the progress they are making, but then, with the other hand give money to support the building of new coal-fired plants in developing nations. He expressed the need for urgency and more ambitious action given the pace at which the planet is changing and gave dramatic examples of the costs of inaction.  Countries, Kerry noted, couldn't "bask in the glow of Paris." And they could not fail, as this "would not be political failure, but a moral failure."

And then the moment when the audience held its breathe - when Kerry chose to speak about the fear and uncertainty people were feeling after the U.S. election. He, of course, couldn’t predict what will happen, but noted that he could say with confidence that issues look quite different when you are in office compared to the campaign trail. He challenged the new administration and anyone who is “conflicted about which road to follow” to “see for themselves, to do their own diligence, to see why so many are moving on this.” He urged them to talk to economists about the risk of inaction, Fortunate 500 companies, military leaders, farmers, faith leaders, and young people. And he told them that “above all, consult with the scientists who have spent their lives working on this” and not let their work be in vain.

Repeatedly, Kerry said that climate change shouldn’t be a partisan issue, but that it is one that will exacerbate conflict around the world. He urged people to talk with the intelligence community about global stability, increasing food prices and risks to human health. To talk with the mayors from cities in the southern states who are dealing with sunny day floods and to conservative business leaders who are holding their supply chains responsible for the ecological and carbon footprints.

Kerry had begun his briefing-turned-speech by saying that climate change was a personal issue for him. Many thought he was referring to how much he had worked on the international negotiations under the UNFCCC, but instead, he reflected on the first Earth Day and the teach-in he participated in, the first climate conference in Rio where he met his wife, the moment in Paris when he thought the "world had finally found the way forward" and this past April - again on Earth Day. On that day, he had invited his daughter to the United Nations in New York City where he would sign the Paris Agreement on behalf of the United States. This towering politician of international renown talked about playing with his granddaughter as he awaited his turn. In a spontaneous decision, he carried her on stage with him so that she would be part of the important moment in history and a symbol for the audience of what is at stake.

Here is the text of the speech.
~~~~~~~~~~
This all brought to mind this poem by Rudyard Kipling
If: A Father's Advice to His Son

If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;

If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise

If you can dream - and not make dreams your master;
If you can think - and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;

If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with worn-out tools

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;

If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the will which says to them: 'Hold on!'

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings - nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;

If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man, my son!”

Moral Courage

 
It is a rare that one has the opportunity to be in a room with a great leader, with someone who is articulate, passionate, and willing to show both courage and emotion on the international stage. Today was such a day.

Secretary Kerry started a briefing – his last at a COP as Secretary – by graciously thanking Special Envoy Jonathan Pershing, the U.S. delegation to the COP, and all the international partners - on this, his last speech to a COP as Secretary. He talked about returning to COP23 as citizen Kerry. He told a story of Churchill and Roosevelt traveling to Marrakech during WWII -- through active combat and with plenty of scotch - to view the sunset on the Atlas Mountains. He later would quote Churchill about not just doing what is right, but what is required. And he would go on to quote Pope Francis. This was not a typical briefing.

Kerry spoke of progress - in the UNFCCC, in clean energy innovation and adoption, in the strong message that the Paris Agreement has given the private sector. But he also spoke of the work that is yet to be done, sharing dramatic observations from his recent trips to the Arctic and Antarctica along with frightening statistics of the predicted new demand for energy, especially in southeast Asia, much of which is slated to come from coal.

The Secretary chastised countries that, with one hand, pat themselves on the back for all the progress they are making, but then, with the other hand give money to support the building of new coal-fired plants in developing nations. He expressed the need for urgency and more ambitious action given the pace at which the planet is changing and gave dramatic examples of the costs of inaction.  Countries, Kerry noted, couldn't "bask in the glow of Paris." And they could not fail, as this "would not be political failure, but a moral failure."

And then the moment when the audience held its breathe - when Kerry chose to speak about the fear and uncertainty people were feeling after the U.S. election. He, of course, couldn’t predict what will happen, but noted that he could say with confidence that issues look quite different when you are in office compared to the campaign trail. He challenged the new administration and anyone who is “conflicted about which road to follow” to “see for themselves, to do their own diligence, to see why so many are moving on this.” He urged them to talk to economists about the risk of inaction, Fortunate 500 companies, military leaders, farmers, faith leaders, and young people. And he told them that “above all, consult with the scientists who have spent their lives working on this” and not let their work be in vain.

Repeatedly, Kerry said that climate change shouldn’t be a partisan issue, but that it is one that will exacerbate conflict around the world. He urged people to talk with the intelligence community about global stability, increasing food prices and risks to human health. To talk with the mayors from cities in the southern states who are dealing with sunny day floods and to conservative business leaders who are holding their supply chains responsible for the ecological and carbon footprints.

Kerry had begun his briefing-turned-speech by saying that climate change was a personal issue for him. Many thought he was referring to how much he had worked on the international negotiations under the UNFCCC, but instead, he reflected on the first Earth Day and the teach-in he participated in, the first climate conference in Rio where he met his wife, the moment in Paris when he thought the "world had finally found the way forward" and this past April - again on Earth Day. On that day, he had invited his daughter to the United Nations in New York City where he would sign the Paris Agreement on behalf of the United States. This towering politician of international renown talked about playing with his granddaughter as he awaited his turn. In a spontaneous decision, he carried her on stage with him so that she would be part of the important moment in history and a symbol for the audience of what is at stake.


~~~~~~~~~~
This all brought to mind this poem by Rudyard Kipling
If: A Father's Advice to His Son

If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;

If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise

If you can dream - and not make dreams your master;
If you can think - and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;

If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with worn-out tools

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;

If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the will which says to them: 'Hold on!'

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings - nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;

If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man, my son!”

An Accidental Ambassador

Photo credit: Gillian Bowser

I came to Morocco ten days ago for the U.N. climate meetings, to play a role in linking scientific researchers to each other and to policymakers, and to obtain updates on issues related to mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. Besides making sure that my absentee ballot was sent in on time since I would be away on Election Day, I had not put much thought into the impact that the timing of the election would have on the climate change negotiations or my being in a predominantly Muslim country.

This COP is focused on implementation – for Parties to hammer out details of putting the Paris Agreement into action, to work on areas where agreement had not yet been reached last year at COP21, and to try to get countries to be more ambitious in their pledges (and preferably verifiable action) to lower greenhouse gas emissions. Everyone coming to Marrakech knew that finance issues still required difficult negotiation work, be it for financing technology for a low carbon future, for helping developing nations to adapt to the current and future impacts of a changing climate, or for perhaps the most contentious issue of all, compensation under the provisions of the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage associated with Climate Change Impacts.

The conference started off normally. Then, a different sort of 9/11 occurred. The world awoke on the 9th of November, day 3 of COP21, to the shocking news that Donald Trump had been elected president of the United States. The very candidate who has tweeted about climate change being a hoax, who has vowed to pull the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement and to defund U.N. initiatives, and yes, the one who has made all sorts of negative rhetoric about Muslims.

It is still uncertain whether all of this was simply hollow campaign speech making to gain support from certain constituencies. But when I see high school classmates, people I have known all my life, posting statements like “No more Muslims or Mexicans in the country, time to celebrate,” I know we have much to worry about.

I would love to be a fly on the wall in the meetings of the U.S. delegation to get a better sense of their fears (beyond their job security in the State Department or at NOAA or NASA). Are their hands now tied as far as negotiations? As a civil society observer, I do not have the ability to influence policy at that level, but instead am limited to discuss with like-minded friends back home ways that we can organize, rally, and try to create climate friendly policy and practices at the local level. I have been surprised at how many emails and Facebook messages I have received from former students and community members -- all expressing their fears for the future and looking to me for a glimmer of hope. I am not sure how to provide what they are looking for, but I have come to realize that there is some intangible importance to my being in this place at this moment.

By being here, I have somehow fallen into a role of diplomacy making, an odd thing for a scientist, who grew up being rather a-political, and certainly knowing little about Arabic culture. The people of Morocco are incredibly welcoming, but it seems as if everywhere I go, the locals – waiters, shopkeepers, ticket sellers at the train station – have a need to mention the election and ask about our new president. After they ask if I voted for him (I did not), they relax a bit and begin to talk more. As typical, at dinner one night last week, the waiter asked where we are from, and then made some comment about the election results. But then he asked why American's don't like Muslims. My heart dropped. I told him that wasn't the case for all of the people in my country.

None of us know what the future holds, so we speculate and try to find some hopeful signs between the sound bites that pass for news these days. As we share some mint tea and kind words of empathy, we come to realize how much we have in common besides our fear – our mutual desire for three main things: peace, a good future for our children, and a planet that remains habitable. This then, becomes my mission – to find what binds us together, rather than differentiates and divides us. For it is these common goals that will give us the strength and guidance to solve much more than the global climate challenge.

Day 3 at COP22 Part II: Trying to make sense of it all

An hour before my alarm was to go off, I awoke. I had been dreaming about the election outcome. So I checked the news - and was shocked by the headline: "Cliffhanger." That would change a bit later to show that the Republicans had taken control of the country. This was my Facebook post at about 6:30 a.m.:

In a little while, I have to walk in to the UN meetings and face the world. Literally. Not sure I am up for this. It is tough enough to try to "solve" climate change, work towards sustainable development to close the gap on inequality, and fight for education and equal rights for women around the world. But what do you do when your own country elects a person who is against all of that...

I needed to pull my act together since I help run the daily meetings of the Research and Independent NGOs. One of my steering committee colleagues - a very wise, even-keeled climate policy expert from Germany, leaned over and said: "It is a sad day for the world. We are going back to WWII times, only this time, it is not Germany causing the problems." I gulped.

Just yesterday, friends on Facebook were interested in knowing what the reactions to the election would be from people around the world (before any of us knew the outcome). A reference to WWII was not one that I would have predicted 24 hours ago. To say it was difficult to stay focused on the tasks at hand today is an understatement.

My third post of the morning on Facebook was let those friends know what the reactions have been:

The election result has cast a deep shadow over Morocco. I remember the elation in 2009, when Obama was new to the office and the world hoped that there would at last be progress on international climate change policy. Today, it is just the opposite. People fear that the US will pull out of the Paris Agreement, will no longer provide funds for sustainable development and climate mitigation/adaptation or any other UN initiative. Much of the key climate research comes from NOAA, NASA, etc. Will that be shut down? People worry about how this will embolden Putin or increase global conflict. Latin Americans are asking what this means for cross border relationships with their "neighbor" to the north. And we are in a Muslim country. The people fear for Muslims around the world. Despite the fact that the sun came out and it is a beautiful day weather-wise, the mood is dark. But the empathy and support is strong. That brings a bit of solace.

The COP22 venue in Marrakech, Morocco

My post today was going to be about the Earth Information session from yesterday where some of the latest climate change data was shared. It wasn't exactly upbeat news. The Futurearth organization has a headline on their webpage from November 3rd: Plans to meet international climate targets may fall short, new report says referring to a United Nations Environmental Programme report. Those who follow climate change science already knew that the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit on global temperature rise included in the Paris Agreement was not likely to be met. What shocked me was what the panelist from this group had to say.

In order to have a 50% change of achieving this target, the following would have to happen:

• Within 4 years, we will need to hit peak emissions (of greenhouse gases)
• Within 40 years, we need to achieve net-zero emissions
• Within 80 years, we need a new carbon sink on the scale of our oceans (read geo-engineering as mentioned in my previous post).
  

To me, this is frightening. Comments (tweets) like the one below made by our now president-elect make it even more so:

The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 6, 2012

The Rest of the (News) Story in 2016

For the past year (it seems like so much longer), the airwaves in the United States have been dominated by campaign noise. Occasionally, this noise has been punctuated by some actual news such as the stories about Hurricane Matthew, the struggle of refugees coming from war-ravaged areas, and forest fires in the western states or the central U.S. (and if you pay attention to international news, Siberian boreal forests). In case you had not thought about it recently, Haiti is still in ruins after Hurricane Matthew, described just last week as a “blighted apocalyptic landscape of wrecked homes and growling hunger.” And you may have missed them with all the campaign static, but there have also been several news stories related to climate change, besides the ones I mentioned above.

In October, there was a historic agreement reached to cut hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) – avoiding the release of significant amounts of CO₂-equivalent emissions. In 2015, reports indicated that there had been a dramatic rise in HFC emissions between 2007 and 2012 due largely to air conditioning – an increase of around 33 million tonnes per year of this very powerful greenhouse gas. The Kigali Agreement will cap and phase down HFC consumption starting with developed nations in 2019.

On November 4^th, the Paris Agreement, negotiated at COP21 in 2015 went into force (i.e. became international law). This is the first agreement were all countries have specific pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. As of November 8^th, 102 (of 197) countries have ratified this agreement which has as one key goal to limit planetary warming to below 2°C over the pre-Industrial levels.

Yesterday (November 7^th) COP22 began. Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Parties or signatories of the 1992 agreement are committed to address the global problem of climate change. At the annual Conference of the Parties or COPs, multilateral negotiations related to climate change policies occur. You may wonder why this group needs to continue to meet if so much progress was made last year. Part of the answer to that question is that the current commitments of individual countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are insufficient to meet the planetary temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. These intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs), when added up, are projected to only limit warming to around 3.5°C, and that is only if the countries actually abide by their pledges.

A goal of continued negotiations then is to get deeper cuts in emissions, to have countries move towards these more ambitious cuts sooner, and to have the conversion to a low carbon future in order to limit warming to, not 2°C, but rather to 1.5°C. Scientific models show that the 1.5°C warming limit may – just may – limit sea level rise associated with climate change so that it won’t completely drown out several small island nations and coastal communities. To get there, not only will each country need to be more ambitious with their INDCs, but the Parties will also need to address emission sources not currently covered such as the bunker fuel emissions from maritime shipping in international waters.

Monitoring and verification mechanisms, carbon markets, adaptation, and finance related to both loss and damage due to climate change impacts and technology development needed to green our national economies are just a few of the other issues that need to be addressed in negotiations. It is only day 2 of COP22 and I have already heard much more about geoengineering and negative carbon emissions (reducing CO₂ from the atmosphere) than usual. With my science background, these terms are code for “plan B” to save the planet. To others, they are terrifying concepts of hubris, our belief that our technological developments can “fix” everything.

I suspect that the reason for the increased emphasis on technological "solutions" may be due to some other pieces of news that have likely gotten lost in the campaign noise. Last year, 2015, was the warmest year globally on record and we crossed the 1°C mark for global average temperature increase. For the first three months of 2016, the global average temperature was hovering around 1.2°C warmer than pre-Industrial times. Sea level rise is occurring faster than any time in the past 2800 years. And we learned that the 2011-2015 mean September sea ice extent was 30% below the 1981 – 2010 average. This information is not from models, but from actual scientific measurements. Perhaps the scariest headline from all of this is that scientists believe it may now be impossible to limit global warming to the 1.5°C target.

These are very big news stories that may be linked to severe weather events and conflict happening around the world. But despite the importance of these issues, they apparently were not significant enough to be discussed in any detail during the presidential debates, and at best, were a blip on the evening news.

Today, those annoying political ads will end. For days or weeks after the election, Americans will come to grips with the outcome of a contentious election, and political pundits will analyze what it all might mean. What likely won’t be in the news during that time is that thousands of people from 197 countries will be in Marrakech for two weeks trying to save humanity from a very real crisis that is happening regardless of which national leader is elected back in the United States.