"Scientific Perspectives after Copenhagen" or "Why Action is Required Now!"

One of the first side events was a panel which presented a summary of a recently published report: “Scientific Perspectives after Copenhagen.”  The report addresses one question: If enacted, will the current pledges made under the Copenhagen Accord meet the goal of limiting global temperature rise to 2^oC? The short answer is no.  The scientists then look at dozens of scenarios to see what would be necessary to meet the 2 degree Centigrade threshold. They conclude that we would have to have peak emissions no later than 2015, followed by a reduction of emissions of 50-70% (from 1990 levels) by 2050. Essentially, for a ‘likely’ outcome, a 66% chance of meeting the goal, the global emissions would have to decrease globally by 3%/year.

One section of the report looks at the impacts of global temperature rise. At 2^oC, studies predict a 20-30% of species at risk of extinction (with 40-70% of species threatened at 4^oC). Water resources are already challenged, and at 1^oC to 1.5^oC, an additional .4 to 1.7 billion more people experiencing water stress. With 2-3^oC, millions or tens of millions of people are at risk of flooding. When the floor was open for questions, the participants wanted to know if 1.5^oC would be a better goal. The scientists, however, could not make the recommendation – there are few scientific studies that focus on the 1.5^o limit, and they are scientists and their purpose is not to formulate policy. They noted, however, that the first ten years or so of working towards a 1.5^oC goal looks much like the first ten years of a 2^oC goal, and that the Copenhagen Accord specifically calls on a review of a potential 1.5^oC limit in 2015.

To read this rather sobering report for yourself, go to http://regserver.unfccc.int/seors/reports/events_list.html?session_id=AWG14-12, and download the attachment “document.”