Loving the Pandas and Slaying the Dragons

Moravian College began its InFocus theme on China with a lecture by Rob Gifford. He had recently published a book on China drawing on his years of living there and a six-week journey across the country. He began his lecture by saying there were both “panda-lovers and dragon-slayers” – in other words, that is there are many who praise China and tout its achievements and others who are critical of China, particularly in the areas of human rights and the environment.  Although I have only spent one week here in the Middle Kingdom, it’s pretty easy to see Gifford’s point.  There is, absolutely, much to criticize. And in the realm of climate change, coal would be at the top of the list, contributing 900 million tons of CO2/year and contributing to horrendous smog and air quality. But I am also struck by the friendliness of the people, and their real commitment to reducing their carbon intensity, despite short-term hardships. NGOs here in China note that they are making real headway on their goals. Considering the transformation of China from my first visit in 1983 to present, it may be possible for China to be transformed again into a green economy – and it would be in all of our interests for them to succeed.

Living Sustainably

If you’re reading this blog, I’m hoping that you’ll also log onto the new blog by Diane Husic at ANewProsperity.blogspot.com. Sustainability is not one of the buzz words here in Tianjin – the UN mainly likes acronyms, although in this conference, the words “balanced” and “fair” have come up a lot.  No relation to Fox news. “Balanced” has to do with the different parts of the negotiation texts. “Fair,” as the Secretariat thinks of it, has to do with the fairness between the north and south hemispheres (the south is more vulnerable to climate change impacts with fewer resources), between the countries in the south hemisphere (not all G77 countries have equal resources or same climate problems), and between the current generation and those that will follow (we need to think more about what we leave to our grandchildren). The idea of living sustainably, in my view, relates to these issues of fairness: we should limit our use of the world’s resources in order that the developing countries may improve their standards of living and we should collectively leave the world’s biosystems as intact as possible for future generations.

The Two Bad Boys

In an earlier post, I mentioned that one NGO representative called China and the United States the “two bad boys” who were “hiding behind each other.”  The week in Tianjin ended with little progress, and if you read the China Daily and the New York Times, it certainly seems to be all about China and the United States.  According to the U. S. account “China is ignoring pledges made under a global-warming accord reached

last year, … and Chinese officials have acted as though the agreement “never happened.” The article also mentions that China does not want to have “independent monitoring to verify their commitments.”

Meanwhile, China continues to commit to reduce its carbon intensity, and blames the delay of an international agreement on the United States. The China Daily article begins, “Progress in climate-treaty negotiations has been blocked because the United States has pushed to abandon the Kyoto Protocol while placing blame on developing countries.”  Their negotiator, Su Wei, pointed out that “some developed countries have kept silent on their mitigation plans after 2012.”  

    Unfortunately, China and the United States together account for half of the world’s emmisions. (To be fair, China’s per capita emissions level is a fraction of the United States emissions level.)  Without these two parties coming to some kind of agreement, there is little hope for a better outcome in Cancun.

Hydro Energy and the Three Gorges

Wanchou, departure city for hydrofoil

Three Gorges

Cliffs along Three Gorges

On the plane to China, there were few Americans, but the few that I saw were going to see the main sites (Great Wall, Forbidden City) and to take a cruise of the Yangtze River through the Three Gorges. Normally, the cruise ships take 3 days, allowing time to visit the towns on the way. Taking advantage of an unscheduled day in my schedule, I opted for the 11-hour journey by bus and hydrofoil from Chongzing to Yichang, returning to Beijing in time for my flight home. The hydrofoil is a popular form of mass transit for the local Chinese, with few tourists, traveling along the same stretch of the river that is being gradually abandoned in anticipating of the rising waters.

Typical landscape along Yangtze River

End of hydrofoil journey -- near dam.

Three Gorges Dam at dusk.

The three gorges is a particularly beautiful section of the Yangtze river, although it seemed to take only a few minutes to go through the most dramatic sections. At the end of the trip, we pulled up next to several other freight boats and had to cross them to get to shore for the final leg of our journey to Yichang (60 km away).  Fortunately for me, there was a guide who was willing to take me around to see the dam before going back to Yichang.  We saw the transmission lines, the monument, and, of course, the dam itself.  The dam is over 2 km long, the largest in the world.  Still not at capacity (or even close), it is still possible to see the large machinery that eventually will be used to let water out.

Monument on mountain near dam.

My guide, a 25 year old, was conversant in English, and was clearly very proud of the dam.  His own family had been moved, and he admitted (but not at first) that many were unhappy to move. But his genuine pride for the dam and related projects was evident. Apparently, over 2000 (mostly Chinese) people visit the dam daily.

 

Unfortunately, it was already dusk by the time I arrived, so many photos didn’t turn out so well. 

Greenpeace in China: Radical and Effective

Greenpeace China is one of the most “radical” of the Chinese NGOs – the member I spoke to was quite clear on this point. After all, who else would bring a glacier and polar bears to the UNFCCC?  But stunts aside, they are producing serious reports about the impact of climate change on the poor. In a report on “Climate Change and Poverty,” they describe three case studies, including the drought in the northwest, forcing 34,000 to leave their homes and the remaining residents left with limited water access; the torrential rains in the mountains causing mud-debris and landslides; and the floods and droughts impacting agriculture in the southeast and destroying homes and crops alike. Their website: http://icare.greenpeace.cn.  Photo courtesy of Greenpeace China.

Time for Reflection

Actually, the pause for reflection happened in the rather large plenary room as the Chair of the LCA convened a “taking stock” session. All of the text negotiation sessions have been closed to observers and press, so this was the first time the civil society had a formal glimpse as to how things were developing. The chair of AWG-LCA has divided the negotiation text into five tracks, which all seem to be making some progress.  She hopes that by limiting the negotiations to parties only, that more progress will be made.  So far, the chair believes that the possible outcomes for Cancun include: a shared vision for long-term cooperative action, including a long-term global goal for emission reductions; adaptation framework and approach to address loss and damage; economy-wide emission reduction commitments or actions by developed country Parties;  readiness phases of activities in the forest sector (REDD+); reducing emissions from bunker fuels; reporting on fast-start finance; mobilization of long-term finance; capacity-building. Unfortunately, there were several parties who voiced their disagreement with her assessment. One of the sticking points is that there is still disagreement about whether it all needs to be a complete package, or whether portions can be worked out and set before moving forward on the remainder. And, of course, there’s always the issue that the U.S. isn’t doing enough. Until now, another complaint is that China isn’t transparent enough, but with the progress China has demonstrably made, there is less talk about that in the corridors. Moravian College will have a delegation of 11 students, alumni, and faculty members at Cancun – we’ll keep you posted!

As for the meditation room, it seems mainly used by the Muslims in their daily prayers.  At the appropriate times of day, they wash their feet in the nearby bathroom and make their way to the meditation room down the hall.

Historic Flooding in China -- even as we meet

Today, the headlines in the China Daily newspaper read: “Record Rainstorms Hit Hainan.”  As of Wednesday afternoon, the record rainfall had forced evacuation of 137,000 people from their homes. It is the worst rain event since 1961.  More rain is expected – there is a tropical cyclone expected by early next week.  Over 1,000 villages were evacuated.  You can keep up on China’s news at the China Daily website: chinadaily.com.cn.

Hosting the UNFCCC – One of the signs that China may be prepared to lead

Of the major players, China is coming out ahead. It seems to be more progressive – partly because it is being pushed by NGOs and its own citizens. China paid most (but not all) of the 5M$ to host the meeting. At first, they didn’t want NGOs to be allowed to have displays – it took months for the entire convention to be approved – but they did allow it at the end. The entire event is well organized, with no lines or difficulties. Many delegates arrived here on the high-speed train (which now covers 4000 miles of track, with 6000 more under construction), in a city that has begun work on the most ambitious eco-village to date.  Combined with the positive steps China has taken for climate change, it seems to be taking a leadership role.

China and Climate Change: one of the “bad boys” or “responsible parties”?

Many of the NGO side events have focused on China. And the reports are mixed.  One speaker, who works specifically with China and the U.S., called China and the U.S. the “two bad boys.” He noted that together, China and the U.S. contribute nearly half of the annual carbon emissions. And yet, they hide behind each other, each refusing to take the actions needed unless the other country meets specific demands first.  In a session sponsored by the NRDC, however, a more positive view was presented.  In their latest study (soon to be published on their website), they evaluated China’s commitments compared to BAU and found that China was very close to the International Energy Agency’s recommended levels of carbon intensity reduction of 47%. There’s still room for improvement – a slightly more ambitious target would mean peaking emissions in the 2020/2030 time frame. The Natural Resources Defense Council has lots of white papers on various topics related to climate change – this is a great place to find full-documented papers.  Three papers were prepared for Tianjin: “Putting it into Perspective: China’s Carbon Intensity Target”, “A Primer on the (Strong) Smart Grid and its Potential for Reducing GHG Emission in China and the United States”, and “Improving China’s Existing Renewable Energy Legal Framework: Lessons from the International and Domestic Experience.”  All will be available on their website.

Polar Bears at the UNFCCC

Yesterday, Greenpeace brought its own polar bear to the conference – alas, my camera ran out of batteries so I didn’t get a picture.