Key COP28 Issues - Part 1: The Global Stocktake

Back in October, I had the opportunity to attend a virtual briefing with members of the U.S. negotiating team. They discussed three main topics that they believed would be the core decision areas to pay attention to at COP28. The briefing was “off the record” and was not open to the press. I will provide a summary of these topics, along with a few other observations that were made during that briefing, through a series of blog posts. I will start with perhaps the main issue of COP28: the Global Stocktake (GST).

This will be the first global stocktake – a midpoint “check-in” between 2015 when the Paris Agreement was adopted to the 2030 timeline of that accord. This reporting is mandated by the Paris Agreement. Parties need to determine how well the current country pledges for reducing greenhouse gas emissions align with the goal of keeping global warming to below 1.5 degrees Celcius (above the pre-Industrial period) and what further actions are still needed.

Analyses of the publicly available Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs (the individual country plans on how they will reduce emissions) have been done and suggest that in their totality, only get us to limiting warming to about 2.7 degrees C of planetary warming (see Climate Action Tracker). More ambitious climate action is certainly needed.

Under the Biden Administration, the U.S. is facilitating an energy transition to clean renewables as evident in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. This legislation, despite the name, has been billed as the most significant climate policy in U.S. history.

From the briefing, I learned that the U.S. will continue to push for reduction of non-carbon dioxide gases that contribute to warming (e.g. methane). Methane is a more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide in its ability to absorb and trap heat in the Earth’s atmosphere (and thus, contributing to climate change). I find this focus on non-carbon dioxide gases interesting. I am not sure if it is intentional or not, but it seems to take some of the focus away from phasing out fossil fuels, which, when combusted, produce carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas. Including any reference about phasing out fossil fuels in any decision coming out of COP28 is, of course, controversial. It doesn’t help when the COP28 President, Sultan Al Jaber, claims that “there is ‘no science’ indicating that a phase-out of fossil fuels is needed to restrict global heating to 1.5 degrees C.” (See Dec 3rd article from The Guardian.).

The headline from the December 6th ECO Newsletter (Climate Action Network) speaks to the significance of this issue: “1st Global Stocktake Will Make or Break 1.5 C.” This really is not hyperbole.

We keep hearing that the presidency is “laser focused on 1.5” but have yet to see the details of the roadmap to this goal.

As part of this global stocktake, adaptation plans and finance issues should also be assessed. Somewhat analogous to the NDCs, countries are supposed to have National Adaptation Plans (NAPs). These plans outline what steps a country is taking to adapt to a changing climate and its impacts, actions that will make cities, agriculture and food systems, ecosystems, and other sectors more resilient. From everything I am hearing, Parties are divided on all these issues. It should not be surprising that financial mechanisms are controversial. About the only thing that almost everyone agrees on is that there will never be enough public funding to properly address climate solutions, adaptation, and “loss and damage” (to be discussed in my next post). 

COP28 Overview & Thoughts!

 Just one year ago, I was reading posts on this blog as a homework assignment while Dr. Husic was at COP27. Now, I am writing my own post on this blog after attending COP28! I want to start by saying how incredibly lucky and grateful I feel to have had the opportunity to attend COP28. I have learned and gained so much from this experience. 

The first couple of days at COP28 were spent exploring the venue, figuring out how COP works, and getting adjusted. During this time, we went to a few pavilions and attended the opening ceremony, where the gavel was handed over from the President of COP27 to the new President of COP28. As we got more comfortable, we started attending more talks, panels, and pavilions! From hearing Madagascar talk about their early warning systems to a film screening about the ocean, we really saw it all. My favorite talk was about Green Chemistry put on by Yale University. I had never heard of the field of green chemistry prior to this, so I feel like I learned a lot. For example, they talked about Air Company, which is a company that developed technology to turn carbon dioxide into jet fuel. If all jet fuel companies adapted this technology, it would bring about a 10.8% reduction in emissions! Talks like this and many others proved to be valuable learning opportunities. 

On Sunday, we had the privilege of seeing Hillary Clinton talk about women and climate resilience. We did not catch the whole talk, but what we heard was great! It was awesome to see such a recognizable figure talking about something I am passionate about. This was definitely a trip highlight! Other notable highlights from this trip were the amazing food, making memories with friends, and sightseeing. We were able to go to the Dubai Mall and the Burj Khalifa one evening after the conference and it was amazing! Being able to see things in person that I had only previously seen in photos was unbelievable.

Overall, this trip was surreal and went by entirely too fast. From sightseeing to attending talks to collecting pins at pavilions, I think I speak for myself and my friends when I say we had an unforgettable time. I experienced so many different cultures, languages, and opinions, which was really eye-opening. I feel hopeful for the future of climate action, especially after seeing almost 100,000 people gathered together for the cause! I hope to be able to attend more COPs in the future to keep expanding my horizons and learning more!

A UNFCCC Primer or Reminder

Expo 2020 - the Dubai venue for COP28

Greetings from Dubai and COP28. For anyone reading this blog for the first time (or the first time in a long time), I will provide a bit of background before I post on some of the issues that are being discussed, debated, and negotiated here in 2023.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (or UNFCCC) is an international agreement or treaty that was adopted at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992. In that original Convention, key principles for the future work were established:

• Decisions for action are to be based on science. For example, any goals towards mitigating the causes of, or impacts stemming from, climate change should be based on scientific evidence. By the time of the Rio Earth Summit, the first report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) had been released (1990). These periodic reports review, analyze, and synthesize relevant published scientific data from around the world to theoretically guide the negotiations surrounding climate change.
• There was an early recognition of the need for adaptation – planning for the adaptation of natural and human systems to the unavoidable impacts of a warming climate. In other words, policymakers recognized over 30 years ago that there were already enough greenhouse gas pollutants in the atmosphere to set into motion some degree of climate disruption.
• The Convention recognized common but differentiated responsibilities. Each country that is a signatory to the UNFCCC (198 of them) has a responsibility to address this global environmental challenge. However, because of both different histories of emitting greenhouse gases (those pollutants responsible for holding excess heat in the atmosphere and leading to planetary warming) and different abilities to finance appropriate responses, there was recognition that countries had different degrees of responsibility or ability for addressing the issues. 
• All decisions under the UNFCCC must be made by consensus. It is often difficult to get a small group of people to agree on simple issues. Imagine trying to get almost 200 countries with different needs, priorities, levels of resources, etc. to agree on every single word of a legally binding agreement!
  
  The UNFCCC Secretariat was established in conjunction with the adoption of the global treaty and is tasked with supported the global response to the threats of climate change and serves as an impartial administrator of the processes associated with the Convention. Like any UN component, there is a complexity to the organization with many diverse functions.
  
  The schematic below is adapted from the UNFCCC website and shows the organization and main functions of the Secretariat. It is led by an Executive Secretary, who is currently Mr. Simon Stiell from Granada who has been in the role since August 2022. In the opening plenary for COP28 in Dubai, he noted that the Secretariat serves as the “custodian of the process.” Since I have been attending COPs (2009), there have been three other individuals in this role: Patricia Espinosa, Christiana Figueres, and Yvo de Boer. There are also ~ 450 staff employed within the Secretariat.

The Secretariat organizes the meetings of the Conference of the Parties (COP) and various bodies or work groups under the UNFCCC and supplemental agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol (adopted at COP3 in 1997 and entered into force in 2005) and the Paris Accord or Agreement (a 2015 agreement from COP15 which went into effect in 2020). So COP28 is the 28th consecutive meeting of the Conference of the Parties (the signatories to the original Convention from 1992). During the annual COP meetings, there is also CMP18 (the 18th Session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol) and CMA5 (the 5th Session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement). If you haven’t noticed yet, there are many acronyms in this process or what is sometimes referred to as the alphabet soup of the UNFCCC!

The fact that we are over 30 years out from the original Convention agreement reflects how slowly the process moves, in part due to the difficulty in trying to solve a complex global problem, and partially due to the requirement for consensus for any decision or action. This causes great frustration for many people who know that the negative consequences of climate change that put human lives, livelihoods, and biodiversity at risk are accelerating. At this point, the IPCC has compiled and released 6 global assessment reports and several special reports, for example Global Warming of 1.5 ºC and the Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) reports.

The role of Secretariat has expanded over the years as decisions and new mandates are agreed to by the Parties at the COPs. For instance, as a result of provisions in the Paris Agreement, the Secretariat maintains the registry for the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), official commitments of countries that describe their plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (by how much, by what means, and in what timeframe). The Secretariat also works with non-Party stakeholders such as cities, businesses, investors, civil society (see below), and other divisions of the United Nations.

I won’t get into the details in this post, but under the Secretariat, there are two main subsidiary bodes carrying out key work throughout the year: the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) and the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA). There are also about 16 Constituted Bodies all of which have very specific charges. A few that will have key roles at this COP include:

• the Adaptation Committee and the Adaptation Fund Board
• the Executive Committee of the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage
• the Standing Committee on Finance
• the Technology Executive Committee.

These different subsidiary and constituted bodies (working groups) meet in between the annual COPs and hold negotiation sessions (consultations, informals, contact groups, and a number of other interestingly named events) during a COP on a variety of detailed issues. This work typically results in documents with recommended language for high level ministers to consider and hopefully adopt before the end of a COP. The totality of the language adopted on the different workstreams are the outcomes of these annual meetings -- the Decision document(s). Some of these formal decisions are limited to a specific issue (e.g. the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage COP 19 in 2013 or the Sharm el-Sheikh Implementation Plan of COP27 from last year). Others, like the Paris Agreement from COP21 in 2015, are more far-reaching in their scope.

If it isn’t obvious by now, it is almost impossible for any individual to keep track of all the moving parts or have in depth knowledge of all the issues unless this is their full-time job. That is rarely the case for Parties or the Observers (discussed below).

The location of the COPs rotates among different regions of the world. Each host country selects someone to serve in the role of COP President. This individual works with Parties to set the agenda for the COP, presides over the formal negotiations process, helps to draft and facilitating agreements, represents the COP at various international forums, etc. – essentially serving as the public face of the process for a year. The COP president often pleads with Parties to be more ambitious in defining goals to address climate change and to work cooperatively and efficiently. There is a lot at stake for the host country each year to deliver on more than promises. At the opening plenary at COP28, His Excellency Sameh Shoukry, President of COP 27 turned the gavel over to His Excellency Dr. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, President of COP28 who pledged to roll up his sleeves and work alongside the Parties. I won’t elaborate, but there are controversies about Al Jaber serving in this role given his deep ties with the oil industry in the United Arab Emirates.

The Party countries identify a delegation of negotiators or decision-makers to participate in the UNFCCC processes. The Party countries are also responsible for implementing the commitments made under the Convention or related agreements, financial contributions, completing mandatory reporting requirements, etc.

So, what about Moravian University’s role in all of this? We are an accredited Observer organization under the UNFCCC. Observers include non-governmental organizations, (NGOs), intergovernmental organizations (e.g. other United Nation units), businesses, universities, businesses, etc. (The press is a separate category and have different color badges than Parties or Observers for the COP.) NGOs make up what is more broadly known as civil society and help to ensure that diverse voices and perspectives are reflected in a range of dialogues and negotiations, and these organizations play an important role in grounding multilateral discussions in the everyday realities of people.

Observers can attend the official meetings, submit written statements prior to sessions, make oral statements, meet official government delegations, UN officers and other NGO representatives, and organize and attend parallel events that take place during the session (e.g. side events, pavilion programming, etc.). They participate in debates, interactive dialogues, and panel discussions, typically advocating for strong climate action or some related cause. Each observer organization aligns with one of nine constituency groups such as the environmental NGOs (ENGOs), business and industry (BINGOs), women and gender or the indigenous peoples’ organizations. Moravian University is affiliated with the research and independent NGOs or RINGOs along with other institutions of higher education, research organizations, think tanks, etc. This constituency doesn’t advocate for any specific position on an issue, but can provide expertise on key issues and expects that research evidence is used for decision making by the Parties.

Observers are part of civil society – the totality of voluntary civic and social institutions that has shared purposes (e.g., solving the climate challenge, sustainable development, etc.). A healthy civil society comprised of NGOs, unions, academia, human rights organizations, etc.) is important for a democratic process and to hold governments accountable. Under the UNFCCC, this would include member nations or Parties and the Secretariat.

In the next post, I will provide an overview of some of the key issues being considered at COP28.

Day 1: "Sitting on the Fence"

     My name is Zach Phillips, and I am currently a senior studying Environmental Policy & Economics at Moravian. I first learned about the UNFCCC conferences through a course titled "Climate Negotiations on the International Stage," which I had taken about a year ago during the fall semester of my junior year. Taught jointly by Dr. Husic and Dr. Binford, they introduced me to the concept of annual COP gatherings and allowed me to familiarize myself with what these meetings were all about. As I delved into relevant coursework, it became clear that the COP essentially serves as an opportunity for countries around the world to discuss, review, and take action in terms of their progress in achieving climate change mitigation goals. Presently, the COP remains a relevant subject in my coursework and studies, especially since I am currently enrolled in the Environmental Policy course taught by Dr. Husic.

    I have the honor of spending my first international trip attending COP28 in Dubai, UAE. I specifically applied for my first passport to take advantage of this great opportunity. This year's conference is particularly important because it marks the halfway point between the Paris Agreement, which was introduced at COP21 in 2015 in Paris, France. For those who may not be familiar with the Paris Agreement, it is a treaty enacted with the goal of limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celcius, and, even more ideal, to 1.5 degrees Celcius above pre-industrial temperatures.

    Upon arrival to the Dubai Expo City, where COP28 is being held, we checked in to receive our observer badges. It was a hot and sunny 85 degree day in Dubai, so waiting in line was a struggle as much of the venue is outdoors. Once we received our badges, we proceeded to the Blue Zone, where much of the negotiating action, side events, and panel discussions happen. As recommended to us, we stopped by a "pavilion" session hosted by Michigan Technological University where the topic of the day was centered around an environmental justice project that the university was involved with, known as "JUSTNORTH." The project asks the question, "how do we negotiate an equitable transition in the Arctic and beyond" when it comes to clean energy. As noted by one speaker, one of the goals of the project was to avoid the word "justice" from becoming a buzzword such as how the word "sustainability" has become. A point was also made on how academia can provide a framework in which governments can build upon policies and approaches to regulation. There is often a divide between what policymakers are doing, what governments are doing, and the expectations of local communities, hence the phrase of communities "sitting on the fence" of what's happening has been coined. One of the primary outcomes is a tool known as the Value Equity Analysis (VEA), which aims to bring stakeholders and rightholders together to a solution.

    Later on, we attended the COP28 opening ceremony. This event included a concluding speech by the COP27 president, Sameh Shoukry, where he addressed progress made toward COP27 goals since the end of the conference last year. After these remarks, we witnessed the passing of the gavel from the COP27 president to the new COP28 president, Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, and finished our first day at COP28 by listening to some introductory remarks and pledges made by the new COP28 president before heading back on the Dubai Metro.

While the first day at my first COP initially feels overwhelming, I am excited for what is to come and to draw connections between what is being discussed at COP28 and what I am studying at Moravian. I hope to become more well-rounded throughout this journey in terms of the information that I absorb.

COP28: Day 1

 Waking up on the first day was a bit of a challenge. The thirteen-hour flight did us no favors, but we woke up ready for the conference. Getting there took about a twenty-minute walk, followed by a forty-five-minute train ride on the metro. Once we arrived, we walked into the massive entrance to Expo-City. The venue for this year's COP is massive and requires plenty of walking. First, we needed to get our badges, which we needed our passports and our acknowledgment letter. From leaving Airbnb to getting to the entrance of the COP, it took nearly two and a half hours. Our first stop was heading over to the Michigan Tech University Pavillion.

The first discussion we went to was led by Roman Sidortsov, a research fellow at Sussex University and now an associate professor at MTU. Roman is a project leader for the project JUSTNORTH, whose main focus was to assist with the decision-making process between rightsholders and stakeholders in the Arctic. This project was created to help build a foundation for future sustainable energy sources in the Arctic (ex: hydroelectric, windmills, etc.). A big issue that lies between the rightholders vs. the stakeholders is that there isn't a way to quantify the importance of certain things. This is where JUSTNORTH has created a tool called JUSTscore to help with the negotiation processes. 

The JUSTscore tool was made to help bridge ethics and personal value to a quantifiable value system. With the help of this tool, it can help certain activities that go on in the Arctic be an ethic-based decision rather than just an economical-based decision. 

This dialogue was very interesting since it's something that I haven't had an initial interest in. Seeing that there was a way to bridge a connection between rights and stakeholders rather than just making an economic decision was something that I wasn't sure existed. This presentation was definitely more on the policy end of the spectrum of environmental science, but learning about this will help me be a more well-rounded individual once I enter the workforce. 

We ended the day going to the Plenary, where the previous president of COP27 handed the torch to the new president, Sultan Al Jaber. I found a few things intriguing about his initial speech that will make the negotiations for this upcoming week interesting. One of the things that really stuck out was that Sultan Al Jaber emphasized the importance of fossil fuels when making a green transition. Sultan Al Jaber's case for oil and gas makes me concerned about the progress of this COP, especially considering that this conference is in a country that is heavily reliant on both of those fossil fuels for its economy. 

After a long day, we headed back to the Airbnb, worked on some homework, got dinner, and went to bed. I'm looking forward to spending the week here and learning about the different branches of environmentalism and the different perspectives of people all over the world. 

COP28: Jacob Donmoyer Pre-Conference

  My name is Jacob Donmoyer, and I'm a Junior at Moravian University studying Environmental Science and Chemistry. I'll attend this year's COP in Dubai this upcoming week from November 28th to December 6th. I'll be using this platform to record my daily experiences of this event, and I'm excited to be a part of this historical moment in climate policy history. 

Last year, I was fortunate to take a course at my University where we heavily discussed the topics regarding COP27. Since then, I've been fascinated with someday being a part of this experience. I got an email this past summer granting me the opportunity to participate in COP28, and I hopped on the opportunity. Even though I took a course where we discussed what happened during the COP, I really am going into this conference blind. There are some things that I'm really looking forward to seeing, such as climate finance, transformative technologies for climate action, and finding how governments can adjust to become more climate-capable. 

I plan on going to graduate school for forestry, so learning about the government processes regarding climate change and the technology for climate mitigation has a lot to do with the field I'm pursuing. I hope to gain somewhat of an understanding of how the process of creating policies and international agreements is made. Gaining this understanding of how these processes go will help me be more well-rounded in the field I'm pursuing. 

There are also a lot of speakers that I would like to see at some point, such as Clover Hogan, Jane Goodall, Mike Berners-Lee, and Hamza Yassin. I know I won't be in Dubai for some of their talks, but I plan to keep up with all their presentations and contribute my perspective. I'm particularly excited to hear about Clover Hogan's presentation, considering she is a young activist and a majority of her work is about eco-anxiety. 

This is also my first time going overseas, so I'm sure there will be more cultural differences than what I'm used to. As of right now, I'm a solid 75% excited and 25% nervous, but I can't wait to be a part of this piece of history and keep the readers in the loop about my experiences. 

A New Strategy to Build Sustained Peace?

Earlier this week (week #2 of COP27), I attended an event at the U.S. Center entitled Fragility, Conflict, and Climate Change: A New Strategy to Build Sustained Peace. Not only did the session title catch my attention, but also, in the introduction to the session, it was mentioned that our Department of Defense had its first ever delegation at a COP and their representative in the session was the sustainability director for the DOD. Last year, during a stakeholder roundtable with Gina McCarthy (then first White House National Climate Advisor for President Biden), the mandate requiring all agencies within the federal government to consider climate change in terms of solutions, national strategies, and efforts to reduce the carbon footprint of the U.S. government was discussed at length. (See a previous post about this event.) It appears that some of this is happening!

As with every session at a COP, several sound-bytes and a lot of jargon and acronyms were used: 

• HDP nexus (HDP = Humanitarian Development and Peace)
• DRR (Disaster Risk and Reduction) 
• PREPARE 
• Emergency Adaptation and Resilience
• Feed the Future 
• Global Fragility Act (I hadn’t heard of this before) 
• 3D (Defense, Diplomacy, Development) or 5D (adding Defining Decade before the three previous terms)

Instead of talking about the details of each of these, I have included some references at the end of the post. The "cliff notes" version is that to achieve peace, we need to provide development aid in conflict-prone regions, address food and water insecurity to prevent new conflict and displacement (or "human mobility" as is the phrase at COP27), and address climate change – in an integrated fashion. Apparently, there is now a commitment to interagency cooperation within the U.S. government representing a degree of collaboration that hasn’t happened in the past.

One might ask whether it takes threats of war to move us to action on other fronts such as humanitarian aid or climate change. And for some reason, having representatives from US Agency for International Development and the DOD (aka Pentagon) on the stage together oddly reminded me of the very unsettling book by Dave Eggers, The Parade. (A partial description of this book from Amazon.com: An unnamed country is leaving the darkness of a decade at war, and to commemorate the armistice the government commissions a new road connecting two halves of the state. Two men, foreign contractors from the same company, are sent to finish the highway.) 

Setting aside the cynicism and looking at global problem-solving through the lens of a scientist, the idea of having science and foreign aid as arms of diplomacy and peacekeeping isn’t inherently a bad idea. The prestigious organization, the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), even has a Center for Science Diplomacy. Scientific discoveries can lead to clean energy technologies, carbon removal mechanisms, and climate-resilient agriculture as well as provide the data and monitoring for early warning systems. If we can overcome barriers such as intellectual property and technology transfer, innovative technologies arising from science might help address climate change mitigation and adaptation, protect livelihoods and lives, and enhance food security. Can sharing innovations from research and development be considered foreign aid? 

The U.S. Center panel discussion and these random post-session reflections have me thinking about how we, as educators, might prepare future diplomats and agency staffers who can work across agencies, national boundaries, and disciplinary specializations. Alas, too often, those of us in higher education still work in silos (disciplinary-specific departments). Distinct packets of information are taught through these departments, sometimes even more finely subdivided (e.g., biochemistry vs. ecology as opposed to thinking about "life sciences" holistically). There are, of course, examples of campus interdisciplinary centers developed around key themes, and some academic programs are, by nature, dependent on interdisciplinary collaborations, including the environmental sciences and studies. But in such programs, do we have students work at the interface of policymaking, consider transnational-boundary issues, or evaluate the ethical dilemmas of technological “solutions” especially if they are implemented and impact people who have had no say in the decision to deploy? In higher education speak, if a program like environmental studies includes an array of requirements across disciplines, are these requirements integrated in intentional ways? Do students understand why they are taking the different requirements and the interrelationships between what they are learning in different courses? Do they realize that the information can and should be applied to solve complex global problems? Do students (and faculty) feel comfortable working across language and cultural differences – both across disciplines and national borders? 

The American Association of Colleges and Universities (AAC&U) are advocates of liberal education and a 2020 publication entitled “What Liberal Education Looks Like” which is described as: 

In distilling the principles, practices, and contemporary challenges of liberal education, this signature AAC&U publication presents a clear vision of the learning all students need for success in an uncertain future and for addressing the compelling issues we face as a democracy and as a global community – regardless of where they study, what they major in, or what their career goals are. 

The American Council on Education, in discussing their global learning outcomes, refers to international education and education diplomacy. 

At Moravian University, we have had a unique cross-cutting academic program known as InFocus that had its roots in discussions going back to 2010. In my opinion, it was a rare example of interdisciplinary teaching, scholarship, debate, collaboration, problem-solving, service, and advocacy. The program focused on 4 key thematic areas reflecting grand challenges of the 21st century:

• Poverty and Inequality
• Sustainability and Eliminating Environmental Degradation
• Health and Justice
• War and Peace 

This program was named to the Phi Kappa Phi Honorable Mention list for the 2020 Excellence in Innovation Award which, according to the Phi Kappa Phi website is “given once per biennium, recognizes one institution of higher learning for achievement in finding powerful answers to important local, regional, national or global challenges.” In the portfolio submitted for this recognition (CONFRONTING GLOBAL CHALLENGES: 2020 Phi Kappa Phi Excellence in Innovation Award Portfolio), the program was described as follows: 

InFocus grew from a 2010 series of dialogues held by small groups of faculty at Moravian College who pondered the question how can we better link our educational mission with the real problems and needs that face all of us, both locally and globally? We deliberated about the most pressing sets of problems facing humanity, and how to shift our common educational life to seriously address them. We questioned how to link research, advocacy, and action; increase multidisciplinarity; and multiply alliances between our college, the local community, and the wider world. We stressed the need for students to envision their education in accordance with their lives beyond the college campus. This critical dialogue led to the eventual spearheading of an open-ended, ambitious cross-college initiative, InFocus at Moravian College, that would be organized around four yearly rotating “Centers of Investigation.” Each year the Moravian College community dedicates itself to one “challenge area” facing humanity that demands greater investigation, understanding, imagination, collaboration, and advocacy if we are to build toward a more sustainable, just, and democratic society. 

For reasons many of us cannot understand, the upper administration recently announced that this would be the last year for InFocus. The stated reasons were that this program it is not something that attracts students to the institution or retains them (although I have no idea how they know that), and it wasn't included in the institutional strategic plan. (For that matter, neither are most of the existing academic programs.) What those of us who have participated in the program know, through program assessments as well as student testimonials, is that students demonstrate intellectual growth and have a greatly expanded view of the world and a sense that they can make a difference in that world. It is more difficult to measure or even articulate what value this has had for faculty, but, personally, the impact has been profound.

Given the theme of the event I attended at the U.S. Center, it is perhaps ironic that the InFocus theme this final year is "War and Peace". In an InFocus event earlier this year, one of the faculty co-directors handed me a pin that says “The more you sweat for peace, the less you bleed in war.”

I am wearing this pin here at COP27

I doubt that whoever created this slogan was linking climate change (global warming) and peace. However, perhaps some of that sweat equity needs to be directed towards addressing climate change which, in turn, will reduce conflict and come with many other co-benefits (food and water insecurity, better health, sustainable development, etc.) 

[An interesting note: 5-5 ½ % of global greenhouse gas emissions are from war and military action. I don't have a source, but this was mentioned in the Emissions Gap 2022 report launch here at COP27 when someone asked about the consequences of the Russian - Ukrainian war on climate action. My friend Heidi Svestre, a glaciologist, noted that one consequence -- largely because Russia is currently chairing the Arctic Council -- is that the work of the council has been suspended, including critical polar research in the Arctic.]

Some sources for further reading

On the humanitarian-development-peace nexus:

A short brief entitled The Humanitarian-Development-Peace (HDP) Nexus: Challenges in implementation

A report entitled The Humanitarian-Development-Peace Nexus: What does it mean for multi-mandated organizations? 

On PREPARE:

The PREPARE action plan (a U.S. initiative)

Action Plan Released for the President's Emergency Plan for Adaptation and Resilience (PREPARE)

National Security Strategy (interagency cooperation)

On the Global Fragility Act

The 3 D's publication  

2022 Prologue to the United States Strategy to Prevent Conflict and Promote Stability 

The Global Fragility Act  

A press release on this act 

Hotel Prices and the Local Economy

 This year, one of the early concerns for attendees was finding affordable lodging.   Many booked hotel rooms months ago, only to find that the reservations were cancelled and they were rebooked at much higher prices.  Rooms booked for $100 are now booking for $500 or more.  The ECO-NGO Newsletter writes that "COP observers have the right to a safe, secure and accessible accommodation, at the prices agreed to when reservations were confirmed, and not to be left out on the streets."  To me, that seems like a common-sense request ... especially since I had booked a year ago and was afraid until the moment we checked in that I would be one of the people on the street! 

However, today I took a taxi to another part of town for a sponsored panel discussion.  I ended up at a hotel that had only a skeleton security staff in what looked like a once-thriving but now abandoned part of the city. There were no residents at the hotel -- they were renting out a couple of meeting rooms to an organization for meetings. This is the other story of Sharm el-Sheikh.  Many of us are staying at the (mostly newer) hotels that have managed to stay open.  But daily we pass dozens of abandoned construction sites left undone.  Other hotels and venues are simply boarded up. Other than the construction of the COP facilities, there is no current construction.   

According to my taxi driver, Sharm el-Sheikh was booming in 2015. Resorts were being built, and the infrastructure was updated. The first blow was when the Islamic State claimed responsibility for downing a Russian plane, which caused a six-year moratorium on direct flights. Then, COVID hit tourism hard, and everything was put on hold.  Just as tourism started up again, with Russians and Ukrainians representing the bulk of the tourists, Russia invaded Ukraine.  I remember reading an article at the time talking about how the resorts were beginning to recommend different restaurants to the tourists, in an effort to keep the peace.  So now, there are no Ukrainian tourists, and the Russians are much fewer in number.  There are some tourists from other countries, but not as many.

In addition to the severe reduction in tourists for Sharm, Egypt is also facing its own financial concerns.  Six years ago, Egypt was forced to devalue its currency and take out a loan from the International Monetary Fund. Like much of the world, they are experiencing inflation, reaching 18% in September. It is estimated that the Egyptian pound has lost up to 25% of its value against the US dollar in 2022 alone, and foreign investments are dwindling. 

With this backdrop, I am just a bit more understanding about the letter from the Egyptian Hotel Association to the Sharm-el-Sheik hotels describing the UNFCCC as a "unique tourism opportunity."  This letter, as reported in the ECO-NGO Newsletter,  suggested the higher pricing models, with five-star hotels charging at least $500/night.  With much of the pricing from taxis to meals stated in US dollars, the COP must have been seen as a temporary relief from a dismal outlook.  

Unfortunately, there have not been appropriate alternatives for the young activists or others for whom even $120/night is out of reach, and suggestions like camping venues were turned down by the Egyptian organizers.  While I understand the price gouging a bit from the local perspective, there must be more done to be inclusive and inviting to the civil society observers.  

Will We Be Drawn to Action With Art?

 

Most years, Diane Husic and I teach a course about climate change and negotiations, and we have always discussed the importance of art for communicating climate change.  In this blog, we have highlighted art installations at the COPs over the past decade. This year, I was happy to see that art was highlighted at the Egyptian pavilion.  As the host country, Egypt has one of the most prominent and largest pavilions at the COP.  This year, they have chosen to exhibit the "natural heritage, biodiversity, and Egyptian culture linking humanity to nature through the expression of art."  There are four or five large areas in the pavilion, and walking through them is much like strolling through a museum. Check out the "Pava Bean Bronze Sculpture" or the lovable "Garden Creatures" at the base of the "Tree of Mary." 

So, yes, despite my love and support for the arts, and my genuine belief that arts have an important role in communicating climate change, I'm a bit puzzled.  At the nearby pavilions for UK/Scotland (COP 26 host) and United Arab Emirates (future COP 28 host), the exhibits are about education and solutions.  Scotland shows off a virtual reality platform, with its awe-inspiring "Space Safari," while UAE features interactive exhibits on solutions ranging from mangroves to hydrogen.  For COP 27, however, Egypt is not using their platform to tout their achievements.  I appreciate that there is a lot of discussion about "nature-based solutions," but these artworks are more of a celebration of nature. So is that the message?  We need to celebrate and preserve our natural world? It may be.  The artwork is beautiful, and hopefully it will inspire the parties to increase their ambition to "keep 1.5 degrees alive."

Welcome to COP27: Another year, another COP

 

Since 2009, Moravian University has sent a delegation of observers to the COPs (Conference of the Parties) – the annual meetings of the signatories (“Parties”) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change or UNFCCC. In a welcome message to COP27 attendees, Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, President of the Arab Republic of Egypt said: 

COP27 in the green city of Sharm El-Sheikh this year marks the 30th anniversary of the adoption of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. In the thirty years since, the world has come a long way in the fight against climate change and its negative impacts on our planet; we are now able to better understand the science behind climate change, better assess its impacts, and better develop tools to address its causes and consequences. 

I couldn’t help but be reminded of a T-shirt that youth delegates were wearing at COP15 in Copenhagen – our first COP: 

And here we are, 13 years later, still negotiating. Those teenagers are now likely in their early 30’s debating if they should have families, how to work and live in a sustainable manner, and worried about not only their future and well-being (climate grief is high), but also the fate of future generations. 

President El-Sisi continued in his message:

Thirty years and twenty-six COPs later, we now have a much clearer understanding of the extent of the potential climate crisis and what needs to be done to address it effectively. The science is there and clearly shows the urgency with which we must act regarding rapidly reducing emissions of greenhouse gases, taking necessary steps to assist those in need of support to adapt to the negative impacts of climate change, and finding the appropriate formula that would ensure the availability of requisite means of implementation that are indispensable for developing countries in making their contributions to this global effort, especially in the midst of the successive international crises, including the ongoing food security crisis exacerbated by climate change, desertification and water scarcity, especially in Africa that suffers the most impacts. 

Indeed, there is clear science about what is changing and what the likely long-term impacts of climate change will be on human health, cities, infrastructure, biodiversity, and so on. The UNFCCC, one of three “conventions” or international agreements related to the environment that came out of the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, bound member states to act in the interests of human safety even in the face of scientific uncertainty. At that time, the first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report had been published in 1990 and there was still much to understand about the science of climate change. Nonetheless, 198 countries (Parties) – including the United States – ratified the UNFCCC which was then enacted in 1994. It had as its ultimate aim to prevent “dangerous” human interference with the climate system. Now, three decades later, the three working groups of the IPCC have published the sixth assessment report (AR6, 2021 – 2022), and there is significantly better scientific information and strong consensus about the anthropogenic causes of climate change. 

There appear to be four main goals of COP27 related to mitigation, adaptation, finance, and collaboration.

1. Mitigation: As always, mitigation is a key focus -- that is, the aim to limit global warming to below 2°C, relative to pre-industrial levels. Ideally, ambitious action by all countries in the world will keep the global temperature to no more than 1.5°C warmer. Throughout the airport and on the drive to the hotel, there were signs referring to ambition to action – an apparent rallying cry for COP27. The Mitigation Work Programme (paragraph 27 of decision 1/CMA.3 of the Paris Agreement) calls for an urgent scaling up for mitigation ambition and implementation. The aim is to have countries submit lower GHG emission development strategies than their original NDCs (nationally determined contributions) by COP27 – i.e., low-emission and long-term strategies. You can learn more about this through the third webinar in a series that was developed by the Research and Independent NGOs (RINGOs), Second Nature, and the University Climate Change Coalition (UC3) from October 24, 2022. 

It should be noted that a report published ahead of COP27 shows that while countries are “bending the curve of global greenhouse gas emissions downward,” efforts remain insufficient to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5°C by the end of the century. In other words, to avoid the worse impacts of climate change, more ambitious goals and action are needed. Interestingly, according to a report from the Earth Negotiations Bulletin (IISD), 

COP 26 President Alok Sharma reflected on achievements made at, and since, COP 26, noting that over 90% of the global economy is now covered by net-zero targets. 

In contrast, the chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Hoesung Lee, confirmed on November 6th that the world is not on track to meet the 1.5°C target. Alas, the political posturing and the science are at odds. Shocking.

2. Adaptation: The original framework recognized that climate change impacts will be inevitable and thus there was a need for adaptation as well as mitigation: 

We must plan for the adaptation of natural and human systems to the unavoidable impacts of a warming climate. 

In an IPPC event at COP27 entitled "Assessing adaptation needs: Findings from the IPCC Working Group II contribution to its Sixth Assessment Report," adaptation needs were defined as "circumstances requiring action to ensure safety of population and security of assets in response to climate impacts." This includes adapting to extreme weather events and enhancing resilience of communities, including those most vulnerable to the impacts. Ideally, there should be a focus on disaster and risk reduction. Assessing adaptation needs is best done at the local and regional levels; for instance, what is needed to adapt to areas prone to flooding is quite different from what regions dealing with extreme drought should be doing. Coastal areas and small islands have unique challenges due to sea level rise, salinization, and storm surge damage. The process should be participatory in nature – utilizing local expertise and indigenous knowledge. This is not the stuff of academic, peer-reviewed publications. The need for a greater focus on adaptation has become more evident the longer we delay ambitious mitigation measures. In the 6th assessment report of the IPCC, there is increased attention on maladaptation – unintended negative impacts from adaptive responses such as having plantation forests (versus native forests) that are monocultures, absorb less carbon, and diminish biodiversity. Currently, there is very little evidence of implementation of truly transformative adaptation measures to date and there has been little monitoring and evaluation for accountability and learning on what works and what does not. 

In just two days, I have heard quite a bit about putting "people at the center" of negotiations and actions and "climate-resilient development." At the IPCC event, it was noted that adaptation cannot be addressed in isolation from mitigation and sustainable development; or in the words of one of the IPCC WG II authors, Siri Eriksen: “We cannot adapt our way out of climate change.” Eriksen went on to discuss the need for an integrated process across society. 

3. Finance: Countries have yet to achieve the finance goals of the Paris Agreement (2015) of annual contributions of USD 100 billion. There are existing (and sometimes unmet) pledges dating back to Copenhagen (COP15, 2009) and Cancun (COP16, 2010). Such finance is critical to meet the clean development needs of Africa, the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) – all being hit hard by climate change impacts despite having done little to contribute to historic greenhouse gas emissions. The often contentious debate over Loss and Damage (i.e., who pays for the consequences of climate change) also continues. Today, I bumped into a friend, Marlene Achoki, who I met at a Community Based Adaptation conference in Uganda many years ago. She is now a Party (official country negotiator). I asked her what her country's priorities are for COP27. The answer: finance and loss and damage.

As I write about this particular COP27 goal, I can’t help but think of the purchase of Twitter by Elon Musk and how that $44 billion could have been put to such better uses. 

4. Collaboration: There are many forms of collaboration: private and public partnerships, community stakeholders working together, global collaborations, scientists and decision-makers, etc. In other words, we need "one international community working for the common good of our shared planet and humanity." From UNFCCC COP27 news:

The advancement of partnership and collaboration will help deliver our four goals and ensure the world is adopting more a resilient, and sustainable economic model where humans are at the center of climate talks. The UN negotiations are consensus-based, and reaching agreement will require inclusive and active participation from all stakeholders. Governments, the private sector and civil society need to work, in tandem, to transform the way in which we interact with our planet. We must introduce new solutions and innovations that help alleviate the adverse impacts of climate change. We also need to replicate and rapidly upscale all other climate-friendly solutions towards implementation in developing countries. 

The Egyptian COP27 Presidency has set out an ambitious vision for this COP that puts human needs at the heart of our global efforts to address climate change. The Presidency intends to focus the world’s attention on key elements that address some of the most fundamental needs of people everywhere, including water security, food security, health and energy security. Sameh Shoukry, Egyptian Minister of Foreign Affairs and COP27 President said: “We’re gathering this year at a time when global climate action is at a watershed moment. Multilateralism is being challenged by geopolitics, spiraling prices, and growing financial crises, while several countries battered by the pandemic have barely recovered, and severe and depleting climate change-induced disasters are becoming more frequent. 

With that reference to geopolitics, I was reminded of both Christian Parenti's book: Tropic of Chaos: Climate Change and the Geography of Violence and the ongoing, senseless Russia – Ukraine war. Besides the unfathomable toll on human lives, infrastructure, and the environment, there has been a global focus on disruption to fossil fuel exports from Russia, the destruction of energy grid in Ukraine and threats to nuclear power plants, and loss of food security with critical shipments of grain from Ukraine being used as a political bargaining chip. 

The first part of the high-level segment of COP 27 (and CMP 17 and CMA 4 -- lots of UNFCCC jargon) is happening during the Sharm El-Sheikh Climate Implementation Summit from Monday, 7 November to Tuesday, 8 November 2022. Delegates in that plenary room or watching virtually will hear statements from Heads of State and Government or sometimes a Vice President designee. The list of speakers includes the brand new prime minister of the UK Rishi Sunuk (interestingly, there were also sightings of Boris Johnson in the room) and there will even be a video message from Mr. Volodymyr Selenskyy, President of Ukraine. Noticeably absent from the list of speakers is the president (or VP) of the United States (perhaps due to campaigning for key elections). President Biden will, however, arrive later in the week. 

Today is election day back in the U.S. and it has been a contentious campaign season, even though it is for mid-term elections. This isn’t the first time we have been at a COP during election day (I voted by mail both times, for the record). The most notable was in 2016, the presidential election when we also were in northern Africa (Morocco that year) and we woke up to the news that Donald Trump had defeated Hilary Clinton. For several reasons, including ones related to climate change and global relations amidst a campaign season of xenophobic and deeply divisive comments, the mood was extremely dark. I was prompted to write three blog posts which spoke to the mood at the time:

• An Accidental Ambassador (also published for Huffington Post)
• Day 3 at COP22 Part II: Trying to make sense of it all
• Moral Courage

It remains to be seen what I will write in 2022 post-elections.